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Current situation and forecasts about the construction market development in Poland, including the Windows and Doors Sector
Data dodania: 15.03.18

According to provisional data, GDP was 4.6% in 2017, compared to 2.9% in 2016. Domestic demand continues to be the major factor promoting the growth. Here, domestic demand is understood as total consumption and accumulation. Yet, it is mainly consumption that contributed to the economic growth in 2017. Naturally, the improvement was facilitated by the favourable situation on the labour market (a increase in salaries and a drop in unemployment) and the governmental programme “500+” as well. 

 

 

Domestic economic situation

 

The second component of domestic demand is accumulation in the case of which consideration should be given to the gross fixed asset formation (commonly referred to as investment). After the very weak year 2016, a slight increase (of 0.9%) was observed not earlier than in the second quarter of 2017. 3rd quarter brought an increased investment activity as the investment dynamics accelerated to 3.3%, still a relatively low result. With such improvement in consumption, investment activity should have developed much quicker. The quoted 5.4% increase in the gross fixed asset formation in 2017 suggests that investment activity became much more intensive in quarter 4. It is visible that investments financed with EU budget framework for 2014-2020 have become more sizeable. However, it should be stressed that investments made up only about 17% in the structure of GDP in Poland. At present, the main role is played by public investment, in particular local-government investment. To lead to a rise in the share made up by investment in GDP, an increase should be recorded in private investment, a figure which is still low. The economy requires innovative actions in the private sector, but the companies’ trust in the state is fragile. The feeling that there is no stability inter alia in the scope of law translates into abandoning investments. A low investment level equals a low prospective rise in GDP in the future. Therefore, information about the Polish GDP can be perceived in two ways. On one hand, everyone should be pleased with the country’s high economic growth amounting to 4.6%. On the other hand, the GDP structure proved that the foundations of the growth are shaky. Unchangeably, it is consumption that is the driving force behind the economy, while it is investment that should come to the fore instead, since investment activity guarantees sustainable economic growth.

 

 

Construction market

 

In 2017 the construction and assembly output reached PLN 84.1 billion, which is 12.9% more than a year before. After the weak 2016, the industry has taken the path of growth, and a number of projects started under the EU budget framework for 2014-2020 will let it stay on it. However, it should be stressed that the high two-digit rise in 2017 did not result so much from dynamic investment activity as from the low reference figures. If it was 2015 that was taken as the reference period, then the dynamics of construction and assembly production in 2017 would be -3.4%. Indeed, the construction industry is gathering momentum, but it needs to be said that the recovery process is slow. Considering the contemporary market situation, one should look at the construction industry in a wider perspective by taking into account not only the very last year, but also other preceding years. Referring the data only to the unimpressive year 2016 can give an incorrect image of the real situation in the sector. When comparing the volume of construction and assembly output over 2010-2017, one should note that a quantity rise was recorded only in reference to 2013 (1.4%) and 2010 (1.9%) (apart from the year 2016). We are far from the volume achived in 2011-2012 when the figures were over PLN 10 billion higher than now.

 

 

2018 03 en 2 1

 

 

At present, the sector is on the path of growth, and a number of projects started under the EU budget framework for 2014-2020 will let it stay on it. The forthcoming months are expected to bring even more positive results, yet dramatic rises are still to be waited for. Nevertheless, it is worth stressing that 2018 will be a year in which new investments will be started, and also a period during which a lot of challenges will need to be faced: a lack of qualified workforce, a higher cost of investment resulting from a rise in prices, increasing labour costs and an accumulation of tender procedures.

 

 

Residential construction

 

In 2017 a record-high number of flats was completed – 178,258 residential units (RU). That was 9.1% more than in 2016 and 20.7% more than in 2015. A month-by-month analysis shows that the greatest rise was recorded in July, when 17,340 flats were completed - 34.6% more than in the corresponding month in 2016. In terms of the number of completed dwellings, it is quarter four that turned out to be the best as 53,915 residential units were completed then.

 

The residential market unchangeably continues to be dominated by private housing investments and investments for sale or rent. Their total share in residential construction in 2017 was 96.8% - 0.5 pp. higher than in the corresponding period in the preceding year. By 2015 it had been individual investors who took the first place in terms of the number of completed flats. However, in 2016 for the first time “the Smiths” were outstripped by property developers whose share in the total number of completed flats reached 48.5%. In 2017 the developers’ construction prevailed in the structure of all completed flats.

 

 

(...)

 

2018 03 en 3 1

 

 

2018 03 en 3 2

 

 

The currently observed volume of completed dwellings is the highest ever. Unfortunately, sooner or later there needs be a plunge. It is impossible to maintain dynamics of 9-10% y/y growth due to the greater and greater volume of dwellings available on the market. Therefore, in order to guarantee a further rise on the residential market and provide companies and contractors with sufficient potential, there is no other way but to ensure them demand for their services and a possibility of selling building materials. Thus, consideration should be given to the residential stock in Poland. The technical condition of buildings shows that there will be more and more demand for services connected with their renovation. Hence, the residential renovation market has a lot of potential to exploit. The residential stock in Poland is on the increase – in 2016 there were 14.3 million flats (with total floorage of 1 053.3 milion m2). A vast majority of the stock is owned by natural persons (outside housing cooperatives) - the total floorage of those flats is 900.0 million m2 (86.0% of the floorage of flats in the whole country). In 2016 the number of flats was 1.1% larger than in 2015 (which corresponded to 152.6 thousand dwellings). The positive tendency was recorded in cities, towns and in the countryside.

 

 

2018 03 en 3 3

 

 

Construction woodwork Windows and Doors market

 

Poland – the Leader of Wood Joinery [Polska Tygrysem Stolarki Otworowej] 1 – the slogan of one of the foresight scenarios presented at the Congress of Wood Joinery [Kongres Stolarki Otworowej] has come true. Poland exported wood joinery products worth EUR 1,667.3 million in 2016, which is 7.5% more than in 2015. At the same time, the exports from Germany went down by 2.0% (corresponding to EUR 1,514.2 million). Thus our country’s exports in the industry equals 21.8% of the whole industry exports in the Old Continent.

 

 

2018 03 en 3 4

 

 

Doubtless, wood joinery is the Polish export hit. An advanced technological base and the latest solutions stand for the great potential of the woodwork industry. Polish windows and doors win foreign clients not so much with the price as the quality and design. The factors are equally important on the domestic market. Clients who decide to buy wood joinery are more and more aware of the choice they make. The studies done by ASM - Market Research and Analysis Centre among individual investors show that the factor that makes a buyer decide to acquire a given window-frame woodwork product is its quality. The price is also an important determinant, but not the most crucial one. Decisions about the choice of products are made on the basis of both information found online and expertise acquired from specialists. Hence it is possible to say that contractors are an important source of information in private investors’ decision-making processes - it is their opinions and assessments that impact the purchasing choices.

 

Despite the significance of purchase costs for investors, it is not the price that is the most important element in the whole decision-making process.

 

 

2018 03 en 3 5

 

 

In the case of window-frame woodwork, clients mainly take into account professionals’ opinions when they are making up their mind. Contractors are therefore a principal source of information for investors. Apart from the quality and price, people who decide to buy door-frame woodwork pay also attention to the design and colour of products. Joinery products are no longer solely practical elements of construction, but are now more and more often becoming valued for their aesthetics. What is also worth paying attention to when analysing the decision-making process connected with purchasing woodwork is the place of purchase. Nearly half (49.3%) of those who decide to acquire window- frame woodwork buy the products in specialist shops offering windows, window sills and blinds as there they can count on sellers’ professional advice. Clients also often opt for buying directly from the manufacturer (17.3%), in a DIY store (16.0%) or in a construction material warehouse (8.0%). Clients who choose to buy door-frame woodwork usually do the shopping is a DIY store (39.1%). The second most important distribution channel is specialist stores offering inner and outer doors (34.8%). At the same time, only 4.3% of clients decide to buy online.

 

 

The construction woodwork market and products offered on it change over time, along with the way clients’ needs evolve. Focused on the high quality and design of window and door-frame woodwork, clients necessitate widening the range of products by manufacturers. What is also worth stressing is the fact that, being more and more aware of the choices made, clients start paying attention to the quality of fitting the product, apart from the quality of the product itself. A wide majority of contractors (76.9% of door fitters and 77.4% of window fitters) favour the traditional fitting technique though. Meanwhile, on average every fifth professional (20.1% and 19.8% of fitters, respectively) fits the products using the layer sealing technology (warm installation).

 

 

2018 03 en 4 1

 

 

 

Beata Tomczak
Chief Market Analyst
ASM

 

Marta Łuszczyńska
Project Manager
ASM

 

 

The article has been written on the basis of data from reports Window-frame woodwork market in Poland in 2017 [Rynek stolarki okiennej w Polsce 2017] and Door-frame woodwork in Poland in 2017 [Rynek stolarki drzwiowej w Polsce 2017] prepared by ASM – Market Research and Analysis Centre on behalf of the Polish Windows and Doors Association and reports Monitoring of the Construction Market [Monitoring Rynku Budowlanego] and Poles’ residential plans for 2016-2017 and their renovation plans in the scope of selected application [Plany mieszkaniowe Polaków 2016-2017 oraz plany remontowe w zakresie wybranej aplikacji] prepared by ASM – Market Research and Analysis Centre. Should you be interested in purchasing expert reports and detailed market analyses, you are welcome to contact us on our email: Adres poczty elektronicznej jest chroniony przed robotami spamującymi. W przeglądarce musi być włączona obsługa JavaScript, żeby go zobaczyć. .

The authors presented a similar topic at the 30th Technical Conference organised by the magazine “Świat Szkła” on 7-8 December 2017.

 

 

 

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